Could This Time
Be Different?
In this issue:
New York Hard
Assets
Conference
We will be
attending this
conference on
May 9 and May 10
in New York and
presenting a 45
minute workshop.
We encourage all
subscribers and
readers to put
this on your
radar screen of
places to be. We
look forward to
seeing you
there.
For more info.
Could This
Time Be
Different?
Seemingly at
times when
markets perform
for extended
periods of time
beyond the
expectation of
the masses,
markets
participants
start
proclaiming
"this time is
different".
Remember back in
1999 when the
NASDAQ and the
internet bubble
was in full
swing? Share
prices were
exploding based
upon nothing
more than
investor
excitement and
bidding prices
to the moon. The
cry of "this
time is
different" was
in the air, and
air it was as
eventually the
markets broke.
Investors lost
billions of
dollars and
frankly had no
one to blame but
themselves.
Is it possible
that "this time
is different"
could ever be
appropriate and
truly happen?
Are we now
witnessing such
an event?
Many analysts
are looking for
substantial
declines in gold
and silver,
markets dear to
most of our
readers and
subscribers.
While another
group of
analysts
continue to look
for
substantially
higher prices.
Now let's be
clear on our
timing:
virtually all
analysts are
bullish on the
long term
prospects for
gold and silver
and frankly we
agree, the party
has probably
only begun.
The issue of
discussion is
for the short
term (up to 3
months) and
intermediate
term
(3 - 6 months)
for the price of
gold and silver
and shares.
Cycles,
technical
analysis, etc.
have seemingly
failed (to date)
as the price of
gold and silver
(especially
silver) have
continued to
climb and hit
highs.
Considering the
fundamentals and
the big macro
picture it is
difficult, in
our opinion, to
build a case
against rising
gold and silver
prices.
Central banks
buying of gold,
the world debt
situation,
nothing but fiat
currencies, the
growing middle
east crisis and
the list goes on
and on.
How in the heck
can gold (and
silver) do
anything but go
up?
Which is our
point, "could
this time be
different"
and could gold
and silver
continue to
climb without
the benefit of a
serious
consolidation?
Perhaps -- if
ever there was a
time to believe
"this time could
be different",
this could be
it. But we
don't want to
bet the farm on
continuing
higher prices.
We have been
cautious on gold
and silver and
shares since
early in 2011
and while the
metals have
increased
slightly and hit
new highs on
Thursday March
24th, most
shares have not
hit new highs as
measured by the
HUI (Gold Bugs
Index) and the
XAU (Gold and
Silver Index).
And with the
exception of a
few silver
companies, share
prices of most
companies have
not exceeded
their 2010 year
end prices.
Investors who
listened to our
early caution
have not
incurred any
losses and if
you sold and
raised cash, you
have not given
up much (if any)
in the way of
gains. In other
words, net, net,
you have
lightened up
your portfolio
while
maintaining a
core position in
gold, silver and
silver, and you
now have a nice
cash position.
Don't forget
that Cash is
a position
and a very
important
position and
allocation for
your portfolio.
The time will
come to deploy
this cash....
but not yet.
Could gold
and silver
be
consolidating
at these
higher
levels which
will become
a future
support zone?
In other
words, if
gold and
silver
explode
higher from
here to say,
$1600 and
$50
respectively,
could
current
levels of
$1410-$1440
and $36-$38
become new
support?
This is a
possibility
but only
time will
tell.
Each investor
must be
comfortable with
their portfolio
and willing to
accept the risk
and reward
profile that
they have
created. Some
investors are
willing to
accept more risk
than others.
While others are
more
conservative in
their
allocations.
Investors must
be able to sleep
at night without
the concern over
how the markets
will open the
next morning.
Find the balance
that is right
for you. If
you have too
much exposure
then take some
money off the
table. If you
feel like you
are under
weighed then
increase your
investments.
Simply, it is
your portfolio
and your money
and you must be
comfortable.
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different
positions.
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Dudley
Dudley Pierce Baker -
Owner/Editor -
Guadalajara/Ajijic,
Mexico
Bruce Ross -
Webmaster and
Administrative
Assistant -
Phoenix, USA
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Assistant Editor
and
Administrative
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Paso, USA
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